Line of Scrimmage: NFL Coaching Security - Who Has It?

Football Betting Lines

06/23/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Somewhere deep in the recesses of his psyche, Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis might wish he had stayed in the NFL. Although research suggests that such a wish would be sillier than the belief that Jimmy Clausen is an elite-level college signal-caller.

Weis has been in South Bend for going on five seasons, and had he passed up that position for one running an NFL team back in 2005, well, he'd probably be out looking for a college job right now anyway. He's already outlasted his old buddy Romeo Crennel, fired as head coach of the Cleveland Browns after four years, and has now been at Notre Dame longer than 24 of the NFL's 32 current coaches have sat at their desks.

The average number of years on the job for those 32 lucky men? If you round up and give Mike Singletary (49ers) and Tom Cable (Raiders) full seasons in 2008, the league's 2009 sideline guides average 2.875 years of experience each.

Without question, the offseason that follows 2009 will bring another round of firings and hirings to keep the average you see above microscopically low.

Meaning that if Weis is looking for a job in the NFL again following another sub par year in the shadow of the Golden Dome, there should be plenty of vacancies.

Below we rank all 32 NFL head coaches, in order of most secure to least secure, with records during their current tenure in parentheses:

UNTOUCHABLE (2)

Bill Belichick, New England (102-42, 9 years) - He seems content for now, but someday, Belichick (under contract through 2013) will leave New England on his own terms.

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh (22-10, 2 years) - Tomlin might find it tough to follow the successes of his first two years, but doesn't seem the type to rest on his laurels.

UNTOUCHABLE, JR. (6)

Andy Reid, Philadelphia (97-62-1, 10 years) - His favorable rating with Eagles fans goes through peaks and valleys, but the opinion of team owner Jeff Lurie is the only one that counts.

Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona (17-15, 2 years) - Getting one of the worst franchises in sports history within a defensive stop of a Super Bowl title should accrue you plenty of equity.

John Harbaugh, Baltimore (11-5, 1 year) - Love affair with Ravens supporters is running hot, though that was once the case with Brian Billick, too.

Mike Smith, Atlanta (11-5, 1 year) - Franchise is already thinking Super Bowl thanks to the immediate culture change Smith initiated last year.

Tony Sparano, Miami (11-5, 1 year) - Most of the high marks for the Dolphins' turnaround went to Bill Parcells, so it will be interesting to see how Sparano fares when Parcells makes his typical quick exit.

Tom Coughlin, N.Y. Giants (47-33, 5 years) - What once looked like the Hindenburg has reached its cruising altitude under Coughlin, though sentiment toward the gruff coach will change if the Giants underachieve in 2009.

(AT LEAST A LITTLE) TIME TO BUILD (10)

Todd Haley, Kansas City (1st Year) - Haley was hand-picked by new GM Scott Pioli, and the franchise has nowhere to go but up after posting a 6-26 mark over the past two years.

Jim Schwartz, Detroit (1st Year) - Another guy who should benefit initially from low expectations, Schwartz will need to earn a little more say over personnel decisions in order to survive long-term.

Jim Mora, Seattle (1st Year) - Mora's big mouth got him in trouble in Atlanta, but he also proved he could coach and that players would respond to his style.

Mike Singletary, San Francisco (5-4, 1 year) - He seemed to find his footing after the pants-dropping incident, but Singletary's fate could be tied to the all-important Shaun Hill/Alex Smith decision this summer.

Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay (1st Year) - Do you fire Jon Gruden to hire Raheem Morris? If the 32-year-old Morris fails, that question will get louder among Bucs fans.

Josh McDaniels, Denver (1st Year) - Everything the 33-year-old McDaniels has touched thus far has turned to...well, not gold...but remember that he has yet to coach a game and has the vital support of owner Pat Bowlen.

Rex Ryan, N.Y. Jets (1st Year) - Gang Green fans love Ryan so far, but we'll see how the free spirit handles the New York spotlight during the team's first prolonged losing streak.

Eric Mangini, Cleveland (1st Year) - Mangini will be given some time, but a major absence of talent and rumors of a player revolt are bad signs.

Steve Spagnuolo, St. Louis (1st Year) - Spagnuolo should have a long leash in order to clean up this mess, but the fact that the franchise is for sale could have him a bit nervous.

Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis (1st Year) - Caldwell was a failure as a head coach at Wake Forest, and if the many changes he has made from the Tony Dungy regime backfire, there is going to be plenty of Indy-area backlash.

GONE ONLY IF DISASTER STRIKES (4)

Lovie Smith, Chicago (45-35, 5 years) - Smith hasn't been back to the playoffs since signing a four-year contract extension following the 2006 season, but Bears ownership is known for both patience and fiscal restraint when it comes to removing coaches.

Mike McCarthy, Green Bay (27-21, 3 years) - Embattled GM Ted Thompson would probably get his walking papers first, but a repeat of last year's 6-10 would ratchet up the anti-McCarthy sentiment as well.

Sean Payton, New Orleans (25-23, 3 years) - Sure, Payton's offense is great, but a third straight playoff-less year will have many questioning his viability as a head coach.

Jeff Fisher, Tennessee (128-102, 15 years) - Fisher (under contract until 2011) will probably be allowed to leave on his own terms at some point, but five straight years without a postseason win doesn't sit well with some.

WIN OR ELSE (10)

John Fox, Carolina (63-49, 7 years) - Fox was also on the hot seat last year, but the Panthers' NFC South title prompted his return to Charlotte. Still, last season's home playoff rout against the Cardinals was galling to many, a large portion of Fox's staff was jettisoned this past offseason, and Bill Cowher's presence still looms large in the Carolinas. Fox has a lot of work to do in 2009.

Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville (50-46, 6 years) - Del Rio received all of the wrong kind of attention last year, when a team believed by some to have Super Bowl-type talent plummeted to 5-11. Though the Jags have had their successes, Del Rio has just one playoff win and no division titles in six years, and more of the same in 2009 could lead owner Wayne Weaver to question whether Del Rio's message has grown stale.

Norv Turner, San Diego (19-13, 2 years) - Turner has won back-to-back AFC West titles and presided over three of the 10 playoff wins in Chargers franchise history, but there is no getting past the perception that San Diego has underachieved on his watch. The Bolts seem to have too much talent to endure the type of year it would take to give Turner the keys to the street, but judging by his team's sometimes listless play of the past two seasons, don't put it past him.

Gary Kubiak, Houston (22-26, 3 years) - The Texans have made strides under Kubiak, particularly on offense, but have yet to be a realistic part of the playoff picture in their seven seasons of existence. If that doesn't change this year, Texans owner Bob McNair is almost guaranteed to give Kubiak the boot.

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati (46-49-1, 6 years) - Yes, coaches deserve to be graded on a curve in Cincinnati thanks to the organization's terrible mismanagement, and Lewis deserves some credit for winning more games with the Bengals than everyone except Sam Wyche and Paul Brown himself. But Lewis also deserves some blame for allowing the team to descend to the 4-11-1 abyss last year, and it's hard to imagine him surviving another year like that one. Even in Cincinnati.

Wade Phillips, Dallas (22-10, 2 years) - There was some question about whether Phillips would survive when the Cowboys followed up a 13-3 season with a 2007 playoff loss to the Giants, so the fact that Phillips remained employed after last year's 9-7 was something of an upset. Phillips knows anything less than double-digit regular season wins, plus at least one postseason victory, will make 2009 his final year in Dallas.

Dick Jauron, Buffalo (21-27, 3 years) - Bills owner Ralph Wilson appeared pretty close to canning Jauron after Buffalo went 2-8 in its final 10 games last year, but the economic climate probably saved the ex-Bears washout for one more year. Jauron went all-in by signing Terrell Owens for 2009, but it's doubtful that he'll make enough of a difference in a deep AFC East for his latest head coach to remain employed.

Brad Childress, Minnesota (24-24, 3 years) - Forget being beloved. If he's lucky and this Brett Favre thing works out, Childress might be able to start on the road toward being tolerated in Minnesota. The Vikings won a bad NFC North last year, and the fans thought so little of that title that the team subsequently struggled to sell out its first home playoff game in eight years. The ill will is directed almost totally to Childress, and declining ticket sales - more so that the coach's poor strategic and personnel decisions - will eventually prompt team owner Zygi Wilf to wield the axe.

Tom Cable, Oakland (4-8, 1 year) - The best-case scenario for a Raiders head coach is to be permitted to move on before you are fired. Jon Gruden parlayed a few years of decent success into a job with a real-life, professional franchise in Tampa Bay, and successors Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, and Lane Kiffin have not been nearly as lucky. Cable did some nice things once he got his feet underneath him in Oakland last year, but is incremental progress, as opposed to an immediate (and unlikely) transformation into a true playoff contender going to be enough for team owner Al Davis? History says no way.

Jim Zorn, Washington (8-8, 1 year) - Look at it this way, because Redskins owner Daniel Snyder probably does. If Zorn was originally hired as the offensive coordinator, and the offense continued to take a step back in Zorn's second year in that role, wouldn't Snyder have fired him anyway? If the Skins don't make the playoffs out of the brutally difficult NFC East this season, and chances are they won't, there is almost no chance the impulsive Snyder keeps him around for another year at the expense of hiring a bigger name.