Plays for Conference Championship Sunday

Football Betting Lines

01/19/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Only two teams since the 2006 season have reached the Super Bowl by winning on the road in the conference championship round.

One of those squads, the New York Giants, who pulled the road trick following the 2007 season, is in action on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. The other team, last year's Green Bay Packers, will not have a chance to join the New England Patriots as the only repeat Super Bowl winner since 2000 because of their 37-20 loss to the Giants this past Sunday.

The team favored to win has fared well in recent years in the conference championship games, going 8-2 since 2006. Furthermore, the home team also has won eight of the last 10 games. Still, both the favorites and home teams are barely above the .500 mark against-the-spread with similar 6-4 marks.

Which two teams will reach Super Bowl XLVI? Let's take an inside look at the two games:

AFC

The first contest, in the AFC, pits Baltimore at New England. I mentioned last week the Ravens were a miserable 4-11 ATS in their previous 15 games when giving more than a touchdown. Well, they are also 1-5 ATS in their last six contests when getting that many points. The one time they covered a game came versus New England.

Baltimore also blew out the Patriots, 33-14, the last time the two teams met in postseason play. On the other hand, this New England squad is a lot different than the one from two seasons ago. That club won just 10 games overall after winning only four of its final eight regular-season games.

This year's team finished the regular season with eight consecutive victories and blew away Denver by 35 points in the divisional round last Saturday.

The Patriots do not have the best of records when favored by more than a touchdown, a mere 8-10-1 ATS in their last 19 games. Nonetheless, they snapped a very impressive streak last week, becoming the first AFC team that was favored by a touchdown or more to cover the spread in the divisional round since 2005.

Not only did the Pats end the winless stretch, they obliterated it with their 45-10 stomping of the Broncos. They are now averaging 37 points per game in their last nine, and even though the Ravens are a solid defensive team, that type of offensive production will more than likely continue, especially at home.

On the other side of the ball, New England has given up 20 points or more in six of its last seven, so the over might be an enticing play for bettors who like to play the totals. One would expect the Ravens to run up more than the 227 total yards they picked up against Houston, particularly against this Patriots defense.

NFC

San Francisco has to feel great about its win over New Orleans in the divisional round, but don't forget the Saints almost won the game despite turning the ball over five times. The 49ers came into the game with the No. 1 defense in the conference in both scoring and yards allowed and gave up 32 points and 472 total yards.

New York's offense might not be as prolific as the Saints, but the Giants have averaged 30 points per game over their last four contests. They are also 6-2 in their last eight road games. Going out to San Francisco will not faze them one bit, especially since they played there earlier in the season.

That game came down to the final minute with New York driving to tie the game at 27. Unfortunately for the Giants, they failed to convert on a 4th-and-2 at San Francisco's 10-yard line and that was the game.

The 49ers held on and covered the spread despite being outgained by 90 yards. The Giants also dominated the time of possession as they held the ball for almost 10 minutes longer. In addition, they were 9-for-17 on third- and fourth-down conversions, while San Francisco was 3-for-11.

The Giants' biggest negative statistic, outside of the final score, was two turnovers to one, and the second one, early in the fourth quarter, was crucial. The Niners scored what wound up being the game-winning touchdown just one play after intercepting Eli Manning for the second time.

The Giants came into San Francisco just one week after upsetting the New England Patriots, so a letdown was more than possible.

Getting back to last week, New York benefited from a Packers running attack that turned the ball over three times as well as from a receiving crew that failed to catch the football on a consistent basis. As was the case with both NFC games this past weekend, this Sunday's game could very well come down to turnovers.

Other than possible miscues, the two X-factors are Manning's health and the weather. Manning had to leave Wednesday's practice with a stomach illness, and rain is in the forecast all week long, so make sure to follow both the quarterback's progress and the weather forecast right up to game time.

THE PLAYS

Assuming Manning is 100-percent healthy, the best way to attack the two match-ups is by playing a six-point teaser with New England giving 1.5 and New York getting 8.5.