Road to Super Bowl XLVI: Pats' offense made it look easy
Football Betting Lines
01/30/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - History will show that the New England Patriots did not beat a team with a winning record during the 2011 regular season. That perhaps made them their own worst enemy during their march to Super Bowl XLVI.
For the second straight season, the Patriots went into the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. While last year's campaign ended with a disappointing loss to the New York Jets in the Divisional Round, New England used a customary explosive offense and some big-time rallies to earn a spot in this Super Bowl and a rematch with Gotham's other resident, the Giants, from the two clubs' memorable clash in the NFL's championship game four years ago.
It's the same Giants who also handed the Patriots one of their three regular- season losses in 2011. In fact, the Giants (9-7) and Pittsburgh (12-4) were the only teams that New England faced during the regular season that ended with a record above .500. Both games culminated in losses, as did a Week 3 affair with Buffalo that was part of the Bills' 3-0 start that ultimately ended with a 6-10 finish.
In total, seven of New England's 13 regular-season victories came against teams that ended with a mark of 8-8, so it at least won the games it was supposed to.
Regardless of who the Patriots lined up against, it was still a dominating effort by Tom Brady and the offense that carried the club all season long. While the defense ranked 31st in the league in yards allowed per game, the Brady-led offense set a new team record with 6,848 net yards and finished the season with 513 points. That marked New England's fifth straight year with 400 points or more and second in a row over the 500 mark.
New England showed right off the bat just how talented the offense was. The Pats set a new team record for total yards in a game with 622 in a 38-24 season-opening win over Miami, a contest that featured a 99-yard touchdown pass from Brady to wide receiver Wes Welker.
The duo didn't slow down all season, with Welker leading the AFC with 1,569 receiving yards. Brady's other favorite target, tight end Rob Gronkowski, finished second with 1,327 yards to go along with an incredible 17 touchdown catches. Gronkowski's yardage and touchdown totals both set NFL single-season records by a tight end.
Brady, meanwhile, set a new personal record with 5,235 passing yards, a number that broke Dan Marino's league single-season mark but was also eclipsed in 2011 by New Orleans' Drew Brees (5,476 yards).
New England would go on to post 1,621 yards of offense over its first three games, but was just 2-1 thanks to a 34-31 defeat in Buffalo on Sept. 25 in which Brady threw four interceptions and the defense allowed 448 yards.
The Patriots quickly rebounded with consecutive wins over Oakland, the New York Jets and Dallas prior to their bye week. They then came out of the break with two tough games -- at Pittsburgh and home versus the Giants -- and were held to just 213 yards of offense in a 25-17 defeat to the Steelers.
Seven days later, the Patriots led the Giants by three points following a 14- yard touchdown pass from Brady to Gronkowski with 1:36 remaining. However, Eli Manning took his offense 80 yards and hit tight end Jake Ballard for the game- winning score with 15 ticks left on the clock as New York pulled out a 24-20 win.
Not only did that result send the Patriots to a second straight loss, but it ended their 20-game home winning streak.
"We're not playing the way we're capable of playing - so try to figure out the reasons why." Brady said at the time. "We keep practicing. We keep battling out there. I'll say that there's a lot of fight in the guys."
The Giants' game was also a preview of something that would plague the Pats down the stretch: Slow starts.
Though New England hasn't lost since that setback to New York, it hasn't always been easy. The Patriots didn't score their first points versus the Giants until 5:29 left in the third quarter, but a solid defensive effort that featured a scoreless first half kept them in it.
Still, it was a sign of things to come. New England gave up 10 quick points in Philadelphia on Nov. 27 before settling down for a 38-20 win. The following week against 0-11 Indianapolis, the Pats allowed 21 fourth-quarter points before holding on for a 31-24 win. Not helping was the fact that New England was held to only three points by the then-winless team in the first quarter.
Consecutive road wins at Washington and Denver led to New England clinching the AFC East, filling in one check box for the Patriots.
"That's one of our goals at the start of the season: to meet the challenge of our division, and our players have done that," said head coach Bill Belichick following the division-clinching 41-23 win over Denver on Dec. 18. "We are 6-2 on the road. They've done a good job. They've met a lot of challenges and this was a big one."
Though New England won its final two home games of the season to lock up the AFC's top seed, the games were far from walkovers despite being against a pair of eventual 6-10 opponents. The Patriots trailed Miami 17-0 before rallying for a 27-24 victory, and an even bigger comeback was in the cards eight days later versus the Bills.
Buffalo scored the game's first 21 points in a Week 17 rematch on New Year's Day, but Brady and company responded with 480 yards of offense and 49 unanswered points for a 49-21 triumph.
"It's not planned that way," Brady said afterward. "There's no panic. I don't feel like the guys on the sidelines really panic. I just feel like it's really a matter of execution, and we started executing better and we put points on the board."
Still, the three-time Super Bowl champion quarterback knew that the Patriots might not be as lucky in the postseason, so they gave it all they had against visiting Denver in the Divisional Round. New England set single-game franchise playoff records for points and net yards (509), including 146 on the ground, in the 45-10 rout of the Broncos, with Brady matching an NFL playoff record with six touchdown passes in one game. Three of those, of course, went to Gronkowski, giving him a share of the postseason single-game record for that category.
Things were much tighter the following weekend in a 23-20 triumph over Baltimore, which outgained the AFC East champs by a 398-330 margin in total yards and nearly forced overtime before Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining.
In fact, it may have been Brady's worst performance of the season. While the former league MVP did put New England ahead for good with a one-yard touchdown dive with 11:29 to play, he was picked off twice and held without a touchdown pass for the first time in two years.
"I sucked pretty bad today," Brady said during the on-field ceremony that followed the AFC Championship, "but our defense saved us."
That was a pretty harsh assessment for a man who had just matched Joe Montana for the most career playoff wins (16) in a career. Brady, though, praised his teammates in the locker room afterwards.
"We won 10 straight games and they haven't all been pretty. We've started slow, we've started fast. The offense has played really well at times; the defense has played really well at times. It's a pretty mentally-tough team. There's really some resiliency, we've shown that all season. Even in the games we've lost, the three games we lost, we fought until the end."
The Pats will need to be prepared mentally for this game as well, given their recent history with the Giants. Not only does New York already own one victory over New England this season, but this second meeting also serves as a rematch of Super Bowl XLII, a contest in which the Pats were undone by Manning's incredible late-game pass to David Tyree, who cradled the ball against his headgear after his quarterback escaped pressure. Known as "The Helmet Catch," the play extended the drive and helped set up New York's go-ahead touchdown in a 17-14 win.
That loss ended New England's bid for a perfect season as well, but the good news for the Patriots is that all roads lead forward, not backwards.
"It's in the past. We can't do anything about our past," running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis said. "We have to do something about our future moving forward and how we prepare for those guys. We know they're a good team, so we have to be ready."
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NFL Football Betting
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.