Super Bowl underdogs cash in again
Football Betting Lines
02/08/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Betting the underdog in the Super Bowl is never a sure thing as evidenced by Green Bay's win and cover as the favorite in the 2011 contest. However, with the Giants victory as 2.5-point underdogs last Sunday, the team getting points has now covered eight of the last 11 Super Bowls. That translates to a 73% winning percentage. For my money, it doesn't get better than that.
Whoops, it does get better than that, as the under in the Super Bowl has come through six of the last eight years. That equates to a 75% winning percentage. For some strange reason, the total in this year's game was between 53 and 54 (depending on when and where the bet was placed). The 21-17 final score produced a final total of 38, far below the posted number.
Did the oddsmakers totally blow this one? Probably, since the final tallies of the previous meetings between these two teams were 44, 31, 73 and 23. In addition, the Giants ended the regular season with three consecutive unders while sporting just one over in their other three postseason games. Furthermore, the Patriots were coming off a 43-point final against Baltimore.
Another point that had to be in the minds of those folks betting the under was that five of the previous seven Super Bowls ended with a final score below the posted number. Not only that, the under came through victorious in the three other times the total was over 50 since 2000.
The underdog and under are two of the key trends that must be followed on a year-in, year-out basis. Another wager that should be used is taking the field goal or safety as the first score of the game instead of the touchdown.
When the Giants cashed in on the two-point play almost midway through the first quarter, it was the ninth time in the last 14 Super Bowls that a field goal or safety was the first score of the game. The 64% winning percentage does not match the under and underdog numbers, but it is also nothing to sneeze at.
Incidentally, the field goal or safety is usually a far better play than the touchdown since bettors taking the latter as the first score have to lay around $160 or $180 to win $100. Those gamblers smart enough to take the field goal or safety were rewarded with a healthy $150 for every $100 wagered.
Another winning percentage-based wager has to do with which player wins the MVP award. Quarterbacks have won it 64% of the time since 1999 with Eli Manning bringing home his second award. That percentage sounds great at first, but one has to remember that there are two quarterbacks in every game. The key is to pick the right one.
To that end, it is best to choose the signal-caller from the team not expected to win the game. The reasons are two-fold. First, his odds will be much higher than the quarterback from the team that's favored, and second, the team getting the points has been crowned Super Bowl champion 60% of the time over the last five years.
Eli Manning's 9-4 MVP odds were incredibly high, particularly since he had defeated the Patriots in the last two meetings. When making prop bets, it is best to find wagers that not only have a high probability of occurring, but also have odds that benefit the bettor.
That ploy worked perfectly a couple of years back when the Saints met the Colts. Indianapolis was favored by five points so Peyton Manning was the No.1 betting choice for MVP. Unfortunately for the chalk players, Drew Brees took home the award with a spectacular performance completing 32-of-39 with a pair of touchdowns.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT YEAR
The early future lines for 2013 are out and if the oddsmakers are correct, Green Bay (6-1) and New England (7-1) will meet in Super Bowl XLVII. The odds of both of them reaching the big game are slim considering only four of the last 10 expected favorites accomplished that feat. The third choice is New Orleans (17-2) partially since next year's Super Bowl will be held in the Superdome.
My pick to take home the Lombardi Trophy is the Houston Texans, who are currently 12-1 and the fourth choice in the wagering.
Houston got a taste of what playoff football is like this past season beating Cincinnati at home and then almost taking down the Ravens in Baltimore. If it wasn't for three interceptions thrown by T.J. Yates, Houston would more than likely have reached the AFC Championship Game.
The Texans finished the regular season second in the NFL in total defense and fourth in scoring defense. They were 11th in scoring offense but that was mainly due to the injury to Matt Schaub. The quarterback missed the final six regular season games and the backups led the team to a 3-3 record while averaging just 18 points per game. With Schaub in the lineup, the Texans were 7-3, picking up 27 points per game.
A healthy Schaub, along with studs at running back and wide receiver, will easily give Houston first place in the AFC South, with quite possibly a bye in the first round of the playoffs and home field in the divisional round.
The Texans could be the most balanced team in the conference and this year's playoff experience will give them the confidence they need in order to get past the likes of New England, Pittsburgh and Baltimore in order to reach the Super Bowl.
Once in New Orleans, the odds are they'll be the underdogs against the NFC winner, especially if it is either Green Bay or New Orleans. And based on the last 11 Super Bowls, we have seen that it is more favorable to be the team getting the points as opposed to the one giving them.
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Will Ohio State continue to run the table in College Football betting odds?
MySportsbook.com favors Buckeyes, Fighting Irish and Golden Bears in this weekend's big games.
NEW YORK, NY, Sept. 21 - My Sportsbook NCAA football fans: things are beginning to get really interesting on college football's national stage. Following last weekend's "Separation Saturday", which included five teams ranked in the top 15 dropping games, the BCS Championship picture is beginning to take shape - with Ohio State leading the charge. And, according to odds makers at MySportsbook.com, the number-one-ranked Buckeyes will continue their winning ways this weekend.
Revenge will be the name of the game in Columbus this Saturday, as Ohio State looks to even the score following last season's loss to Joe Paterno's Nittany Lions. Although Penn State are listed as 16.5 point underdogs, they are 11-10 all-time versus the Buckeyes. Paterno and the Lions, however, will have to shut down Heisman Trophy favorite Troy Smith who has thrown for 769 yards and seven touchdowns this season.
Speaking of revenge, Notre Dame will be out for some against Michigan State, following last year's 44 - 41 overtime loss to the Spartans in South Bend. The thirteenth-ranked Irish, listed as a 3-point favorite, will also be looking to avenge last Saturday's thrashing from the Michigan Wolverines. The Spartans, meanwhile, have won seven of the last nine match-ups against Notre Dame and are coming off an impressive 38-23 victory over Pittsburgh.
Out west, 22nd-ranked Arizona State will be battling for their first victory over 21st-ranked California since 2000. Although the Golden Bears are listed as 7.5-point favorites, the Sun Devils are 3-0, lead the nation in sacks with 18 and possess the Pac-10's leading passer in sophomore quarterback Rudy Carpenter.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
NCAA Football betting lines (home team in CAPS)
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Date Favorite Opponent Point Spread
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Sept 21 GEORGIA TECH Virginia 17
Sept 22 NEVADA Northwestern 6.5
Sept 23 MICHIGAN Wisconsin 14
Sept 23 Minnesota PURDUE 3
Sept 23 SYRACUSE Miami (Ohio) 6.5
Sept 23 MISSOURI Ohio 21.5
Sept 23 Louisville KANSAS STATE 14
Sept 23 TENNESSEE Marshall 22
Sept 23 CLEMSON North Carolina 16.5
Sept 23 FLORIDA Kentucky 24
Sept 23 Iowa ILLINOIS 20.5
Sept 23 FLORIDA STATE Rice 30.5
Sept 23 AUBURN Buffalo 41.5
Sept 23 BOWLING GREEN Kent 7
Sept 23 NAVY Tulsa 4.5
Sept 23 VIRGINIA TECH Cincinnati 27
Sept 23 BYU Utah State 29
Sept 23 OHIO STATE Penn State 16.5
Sept 23 TEXAS Iowa State 25
Sept 23 Washington State STANFORD 10
Sept 23 CALIFORNIA Arizona State 7.5
Sept 23 UCLA WASHINGTON 3
Sept 23 INDIANA Connecticut 1.5
Sept 23 Central Michigan EASTERN MICHIGAN 4
Sept 23 WYOMING Air Force 1
Sept 23 UTEP NEW MEXICO 9.5
Sept 23 West Virginia EAST CAROLINA 21
Sept 23 Boston College NORTH CAROLINA STATE 7
Sept 23 GEORGIA Colorado 27
Sept 23 ARKANSAS Alabama 1.5
Sept 23 BAYLOR Army 11
Sept 23 WESTERN MICHIGAN Temple 28
Sept 23 MISSISSIPPI Wake Forest 2.5
Sept 23 KANSAS South Florida 5.5
Sept 23 TEXAS A&M Louisiana Tech 23.5
Sept 23 UAB Mississippi State 9.5
Sept 23 LSU Tulane 36
Sept 23 Utah SAN DIEGO STATE 6.5
Sept 23 BOISE STATE Hawaii 15
Sept 23 Notre Dame MICHIGAN STATE 3
Sept 23 USC ARIZONA U 22
Sept 23 Oklahoma State HOUSTON 1
Sept 23 OREGON STATE Idaho 23
Sept 23 OKLAHOMA Middle Tennessee State 29
Sept 23 MARYLAND Florida International 18.5
Sept 23 AKRON North Texas 17.5
Sept 23 SOUTH CAROLINA Florida Atlantic 29.5
Sept 23 NEBRASKA Troy 23
Sept 23 SMU Arkansas State 6
For complete NCAA football odds and World Series odds please visit MySportsbook.com