Vikes Seek to Make Eagles' Visit an Unhappy One
Football Betting Lines
01/02/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Playoff football returns to the state of Minnesota for the first time in eight years this Sunday, where the home-standing Vikings will entertain a Philadelphia Eagles squad in an NFC Wild Card round encounter between teams that share a host of similarities.
Both the Vikings and Eagles were once on shaky ground in regards to making the postseason before punching their tickets with a late-year flourish. Minnesota won five of its last six games to capture its first NFC North title since 2000 and end a four-year playoff drought, while Philadelphia was able to nudge its way into the conference's final Wild Card spot by going 4-1 down the stretch.
The Eagles posted victories over a pair of NFC division winners in Arizona and the New York Giants during their surge, then capped the strong run with a 44-6 pasting of the rival Dallas Cowboys last Sunday to seize the sixth and the final seed with a 9-6-1 record. Philadelphia got some needed help along the way, as Tampa Bay and Chicago -- teams that would have finished ahead of the Eagles with a win in the season's final week -- both lost their finales.
The Bears' 31-24 setback at Houston in Week 17 also secured the No. 3 playoff seed for Minnesota, although the Vikings took matters into their own hands by edging the NFC East champion Giants in their most recent test. Brad Childress' troops rallied from a nine-point deficit with under 10 minutes to play and came through with a 20-19 decision on kicker Ryan Longwell's 50-yard field goal as time expired.
Minnesota now gets the reward of hosting its first postseason game at the Metrodome since the team registered a 34-16 triumph over New Orleans in a 2000 NFC Divisional Playoff. The Vikings did reach the playoffs in 2004 but played a pair of road tilts that year, including a 27-14 loss to the eventual NFC Super Bowl representative Eagles in the Divisional round.
Childress served as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator for that game and spent seven seasons on the staff of Eagles head coach Andy Reid from 1999-2005 before being named the Vikings' sideline boss the following year.
The Eagles are back in the postseason after a one-year absence and will be making their seventh such appearance in Reid's decade-long tenure. Philadelphia is 8-6 in the playoffs under Reid and has won each of its three previous Wild Card-round tilts over that span.
Nearly all of those 14 games have come with Donovan McNabb under center for the Eagles, and the standout quarterback was an instrumental part of his team's late-season tear. Over the final five regular-season tilts, McNabb threw nine touchdown passes and was intercepted just once while completing over 64 percent of his throws.
Minnesota's fate will rest in the hands of young triggerman Tarvaris Jackson, who took the reigns of the offense from veteran Gus Frerotte in a Week 14 victory at Detroit and guided the Vikes to crucial wins over the playoff-bound Cardinals and Giants in December.
SERIES HISTORY
The Eagles have won both postseason meetings with the Vikings, beating them in 1980 and 2004 en route to Super Bowl appearances in both seasons. Both contests were NFC Divisional Playoffs played in Philadelphia, with the former coming by a 31-16 count at Veterans Stadium and the latter the previously- mentioned 27-14 decision at Lincoln Financial Field.
Minnesota holds an 11-9 edge in its all-time regular season series with Philadelphia, but has dropped six of the last seven to the Eagles, including a 23-16 home defeat in the last such matchup, in Week 8 of the 2007 regular season. The Vikings have lost four straight to the Eagles overall since scoring a 28-19 win over the Birds at the Metrodome in 1997.
Reid has a 4-0 record against Minnesota all-time. Childress is 0-1 against both his former boss Reid and employer the Eagles.
WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
McNabb (3916 passing yards, 23 TD, 11 INT) has endured a whirlwind season that included an unceremonious benching by Reid for the second half of a blowout loss at Baltimore in late November, but the five-time Pro Bowl participant still managed to set a career best for passing yards and was nearly flawless during the Eagles' playoff push. He's also had to deal with inconsistency at the wide receiver position, where 2007 starters Kevin Curtis (33 receptions, 2 TD) and Reggie Brown (18 receptions, 1 TD) have failed to match their previous year's production in injury-plagued campaigns. Speedy rookie DeSean Jackson (62 receptions, 2 TD) has added a necessary big-play element to the group, however. Philadelphia's sixth-rated passing offense (244.4 ypg) could be without tight end L.J. Smith (37 receptions, 3 TD) for Sunday's test, as the impending free agent is dealing with a shoulder problem that forced him out of the Dallas game.
An added bonus to last weekend's blowout of the Cowboys was that the Eagles were able to reduce the workload of running back Brian Westbrook (936 rushing yards, 54 receptions, 14 total TD). The invaluable offensive catalyst has fought through an assortment of nagging injuries that help explain his career- low 4.0 yards per carry average and lowest receiving yardage total since 2003, but he did come up with a couple of huge efforts in the late-season wins over Arizona and the Giants. Both Westbrook and proven understudy Correll Buckhalter (369 rushing yards, 26 receptions, 4 TD) are essential parts of Philadelphia's passing game, as the duo averages over 50 receiving yards per week between them.
The Eagles don't usually run the ball a whole lot, and expect that trend to continue against a Minnesota defense that is yielding a league-low 76.9 rushing yards per game and a meager 3.3 yards per attempt. However, the Vikings may be missing two key members on the defensive line for Sunday's clash. Pro Bowl tackle Pat Williams (44 tackles, 1 sack) hasn't played since fracturing his shoulder blade in the December 14 win at Arizona, while end Ray Edwards (54 tackles, 5 sacks) is likely to sit out after injuring his left knee in last week's game. The team is hopeful Williams will be able to return, but the accomplished run stuffer will almost certainly be limited if he is active. His absence would put added pressure on a linebacking corps headed up by athletic third-year pro Chad Greenway (115 tackles, 5.5 sacks).
Minnesota's run-stopping prowess is complemented by a fearsome pass rush that netted 45 sacks during the regular season, the fourth-most in the league. Pro Bowl end Jared Allen (54 tackles, 14.5 sacks) has been a blind-side terror for enemy quarterbacks ever since he entered the league in 2004, while tackle Kevin Williams (60 tackles, 8.5 sacks) will be joining his teammate in Honolulu following another sensational season as well. A quality secondary that has allowed just 15 touchdown passes this year is led by cornerback Antoine Winfield (95 tackles, 2 INT, 2 sacks), an excellent cover man who's also a force against the run. He and fellow corner Cedric Griffin (91 tackles, 1 INT, 14 PD) tied for the team lead with four forced fumbles.
WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL
Minnesota's offense is tailored around the immense talents of 2007 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson (1760 rushing yards, 10 TD, 21 receptions), who topped the league in rushing yards and eclipsed the century mark in four of the club's final five games. The sophomore running back's rare blend of power and speed was emphasized by a dazzling 67-yard touchdown burst in last week's win over the Giants, but he's had an issue with ball security as of late. Peterson has fumbled nine times this year, five of which have come over the past four weeks. Like the Eagles, the Vikings' fifth-ranked rushing attack (145.8 ypg) possesses a strong backup option in Chester Taylor (399 rushing yards, 45 receptions, 6 total TD), a former 1,000-yard rusher who's also one of the team's leading receivers.
Philadelphia knows it's going to need to contain Peterson in order to survive and advance, but a defense that's given up only 92.3 rushing yards per game this season (4th overall) and has been a brick wall versus the run in the second half may be up to the task. The Eagles kept Minnesota's young star under wraps when these teams met last season, with Peterson mustering a pedestrian 70 yards on 20 attempts. Philly sports a very active pair of safeties in seven-time Pro Bowler Brian Dawkins (75 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) and Quintin Mikell (93 tackles, 3 INT, 2 sacks), and one or both will likely be crowding the line of scrimmage for a good portion of Sunday's game. Middle linebacker Stewart Bradley (108 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and tackle Brodrick Bunkley (47 tackles, 2 sack) have made it a challenge for teams to effectively run up the middle.
If the Eagles are able to hold Peterson in check, you can bet defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will be dialing up a barrage of blitzes with the hopes of forcing Tarvaris Jackson, who will be making his playoff debut and owns only 19 career NFL starts, into mistakes. Johnson's aggressive scheme helped deliver 45 sacks (3rd overall) and 29 takeaways during the regular season, with the unit inducing five turnovers and scoring two touchdowns against the fragile Cowboys a week ago. Linemen Trent Cole (77 tackles, 9 sacks) and Darren Howard (26 tackles, 10 sacks, 1 INT) have been the team's most dangerous pass rushers, while cornerback Asante Samuel (35 tackles, 4 INT, 22 PD) is an outstanding playmaker who annually stands among the league leaders in interceptions. Philadelphia finished the year having allowed the third- fewest passing yards in the NFL (182.1 ypg).
Jackson (1056 passing yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) may still be viewed as a work in progress, but the small-school product's performance over the past few weeks is evidence that he's making great strides. Since regaining his starting job from Frerotte, the 25-year-old has completed 64 percent of his passes and thrown for eight touchdowns with just one interception in a four-game span. Jackson has a skilled deep threat to work with in wideout Bernard Berrian (48 receptions, 7 TD), a free-agent pickup who averaged better than 20 yards per catch in his first season with the Vikes. Bobby Wade (53 receptions, 2 TD) has had a fine year as well on the opposite side, while Visanthe Shiancoe's (42 receptions) seven touchdown catches were the most among NFC tight ends. The line has surrendered a rather-high total of 43 sacks on the year, making Jackson's mobility a valued asset.
SPECIAL TEAMS
One real trouble area for the Vikings this season has been in punt coverage, where the team has permitted four touchdowns and a league-worst average of nearly 15 yards per runback. Philadelphia's return game, a major liability in past years, has turned into a strength with the additions of rookies Quintin Demps (25.3 avg., 1 TD on kickoffs) and DeSean Jackson (8.8 avg., 1 TD on punts) and will be looking to exploit Minnesota's weakness. The Vikings used Berrian (16.3 avg.) on punt returns towards the end of the season, and the former Chicago Bear made the move pay off with an 82-yard touchdown in the Week 15 win over Arizona.
Give the Vikings an edge in the kicking game, as Longwell has been a real long range weapon who's hit on all six of his field-goal attempts from 50 yards or more this year. Philadelphia's David Akers has remained very accurate from shorter distances, but the 10th-year vet has struggled from longer distances in recent years.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
These are two teams that got hot down the stretch by playing excellent defense, and the high stakes involved in this matchup could lead to both coaches playing it rather close to the vest in a low-scoring affair. The one that's successful in neutralizing the other's strength -- namely, the Eagles' passing game and the Vikings' rushing attack -- should be the one that survives. If that's the case, Philadelphia seems to be more equipped to prevent Peterson from running wild than Minnesota is to get a battle-tested McNabb out of his late-season groove. The Eagles have simply been a little bit better than the Vikings over the last month, and Philly's playoff experience should come in handy in what figures to be a tough environment.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Eagles 20, Vikings 13
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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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